Welcome back,
Decision -making
in uncertain times
-Ultimate methods-
My dear Friends,
Did you know that you make 35.000 decisions every day? From deciding to get up in the morning to choosing a meal at your favourite restaurant.
“Should I stay or should I leave” requires a decision. So, some decisions are so simple that you’re barely aware you’re making them, while others are time-consuming, high-risk, and can leave you feeling anxious.
Decisions can make or break a project or an entire life. And often involve complex and unpredictable interpersonal issues, too. At times the information we get is just too confusing. At other times too many people try to give “advice”, and we just get ever more confused.
So, it is quite tempting to delay important choices or avoid them altogether, especially in uncertain times. This, however, is by far the worst decision to make. Avoiding making decisions can have far worse outcomes than making a flawed decision.
So, here I will explore some of the proven methods to start the decision-making process.
Why decision-making can be so difficult
Ultimately, what defines a hard decision isn’t so much the decision itself but how the decision maker perceives it. You might feel that a decision is hard because:
- you feel the stakes are very high for you
- two or more options weigh the same in your mind
- you had a bad experience with a decision you made
- you associate your decision-making with unspecified fear
Fear is sadly the most common feeling we have when forced to make a decision. This happens, for example, when a choice is reminiscent of disappointing past choices. It is also the case for the individual whose psychological complexes are triggered by certain challenging situations. For example, a decision might unconsciously reignite a past traumatic event and alter your judgment as a result.
Others feel so insecure that having so much power throws up a whole range of issues associated with childhood experiences. Very often, decisions are tainted by an overactive ego– the image of a parent or another childhood figure supersedes a person’s ability to make rational decisions.
The origins of the word decision might offer a good explanation for our reluctance to make important decisions. Decision derives from the Latin word “caedere” – which means ” to cut off.” So this might explain why we often associate decision-making with pain.
A temptation
It can be very tempting to take the easy road and procrastinate. True, faced with two options, we can decide to do nothing- that would, in fact, be the third option. So, doing nothing is also a decision; however, a very short-sighted one.
The truth is the decision-making process is fairly simple. You recognize a need (I’m hungry), look for possible ways to satisfy it (sandwich/steak/salad), evaluate these alternatives (calories/taste), make the decision (steak with salad) and afterwards reflect on your choice (definitely worth it/shouldn’t have eaten that much).
However, faced with more difficult decisions, we tend to complicate the process mostly because our ego and emotions come in the way. Your brain feels fear and anxiety, and that makes us act in a certain way. Or fear paralyzes us. We fear a dire consequence; we suffer from FOMO; we fear being ridiculed; we fear losing all our money etc. So, we choose the “easy” way out. We procrastinate!
Research shows that in the short term, people who keep kicking decisions down the road experience some short-lived satisfaction because they have avoided making the wrong decision. In the long term, however, these people experience more regrets from having made no decision at all.
We must therefore acknowledge making a decision is wiser than procrastinating the process. However difficult this might be, it at least offers the satisfaction of having purposefully influenced a situation. No matter what the outcome is.
When making a decision of minor importance, I have always found it advantageous to consider all the pros and cons. In vital matters, however, such as the choice of a mate or a profession, the decision should come from the unconscious, from somewhere within ourselves. In the important decisions of personal life, we should be governed, I think, by the deep inner needs of our nature.
Sigmund Freud; Neurologigst&Phychoanalyst; 1856-1939
The ultimate methods
To truly improve the quality of your decision-making and to rake in the maximum benefit, it is best to read the following with a particularly difficult decision in mind.
Different parts – different things
A decision becomes hard when different parts of you desire different things. For example, when deciding whether to book a pricey holiday, one part of you-prudent you- might think that this expense is unreasonable. In contrast, another part of you -hedonistic you- prefers to make the most of life and go for it, while yet another part of you-serious you- will think that work should come first.
Decision-making involves aligning the different parts of yourself. Set up an imaginary conference to agree on an outcome all parts of you can settle for. In practical terms, write down what each part of you wants and see if you can identify a solution that optimises the joint aspirations of your different inner selves. Even if you don’t get that far just yet, the simple act of recognising your own competing desires will help you to think through the decision.
Investigate the situation
Decisions often fail because key factors are missed or ignored from the outset. So, before you can begin to make a decision, you need to understand a situation fully.
A decision has to be considered in the context of the problem it is intended to address. You need to determine whether the stated problem is the real issue or just a symptom of something deeper.
Look at the bigger picture. It is most likely that there are a number of interrelated factors to consider. A change you make, for example, could have negative knock-on effects elsewhere, making the change counterproductive.
The objectives&priorities
Objectives are the ultimate goals that a decision aims to achieve. For example, if you decide to invest, ask: ‘Why is it that I concern myself with this decision?‘
It could be because you want to make money, secure your future financial well-being, support the development of ideas, have a fixed income, do something for the environment, or a combination of these and many more. Sort out your priorities first. Then list your objectives in the order of priority and cross-check how many of them would be satisfied by each decision.
Research done by the London School of Economics found our decisions frequently suffer from having too narrow a range of objectives. Ideally, we would increase the number of objectives by around 50 per cent. So re-examine your objectives and see if you can list some more.
With greater awareness of the objectives relevant to a decision, you can significantly improve decision-making and the outcomes that ensue.
Distance yourself
The more you struggle with difficult decisions, the less distance from them you enjoy and the more stressed you can become. And yet, psychological distance provides a sense of perspective that is a key component of effective decision-making.
Think outside the box
It all starts with imagination. The wider the options you explore, the better your final decision is likely to be. Generating a number of different options may seem to make your decision more complicated at first, but the act of coming up with alternatives forces you to dig deeper and look at the problem from different angles.
Brainstorming is probably the most popular method of generating ideas. Ask friends or contacts who are known for the ability to see another option available to you. Alternatively, you can use tools like Reframing Matrix, or Affinity Diagrams, or just simple brainstorming.
Explore options
Once you have a good selection of realistic alternatives, evaluate the feasibility, risks and implications of each one.
Almost every decision involves some degree of risk. Use a structured approach for assessing threats and evaluating the probability of adverse events occurring. Assess what they might cost to manage. You’ll also want to examine the ethical impact of each option and how that might sit with your personal values.
10-10-10 method
Warren Buffett credits some of his best decision-making to a method known as the 10/10/10 method. Making better decisions isn’t actually that hard. You have to find a way to think about the rational long-term consequences instead of being absorbed by short-term emotions.
The three timeframes let you assess your decision from three different viewpoints. They enable a balanced, comprehensive, and realistic overview of how a decision can play out.
Your emotions will determine how you feel about it in ten minutes. In ten months, your behaviour is likely to have a big, albeit different, impact on how you feel. Your short-term emotions are gone. Ten years from now, your choice will either be completely irrelevant or potentially life-altering, with very little in between.
Listen to your gut
Tapping into the emotional part of your psyche is key to effective decision-making. In some cases, it is the most essential component.
Write about each option (half a page each time on a separate sheet), and explore how you feel while writing; also, how you feel about each sheet in front of you. If you throw them into the wastepaper bin one by one until one remains, what are the emotions and feelings prompted when you dispose of them?
Another shortcut to your emotions is to close your eyes when thinking about each option and try to identify the colour that you see (with your eyes still closed) when thinking about one or the other option.
Act upon your decision
Once you decide on your best option, you need to act upon it. Now here comes the point where many lose their confidence, and we stumble and might withdraw from the decision we made.
We find it hard, sometimes even impossible, to get started. We are back to square one. But there is a way out of this dilemma: break down your big decision into a series of micro-decisions.
Imagine you decided to invest a certain sum in real estate. You know your objectives and have established your options still, but you are unable to act upon the decision you made. The solution is to break this major decision down into small manageable decisions:
This might sound trivial, but it is the beginning of a process. Getting started with this level of information will create momentum that will lead to progress.
However, if a lack of conviction in the selected options is worth going over the decision-making process all over again – until you feel confident with your decision.
Essentials
We make 35.000 decisions every day. Decision-making involves aligning the different parts of yourself. Faced with more difficult decisions, we tend to complicate the process mostly because our ego and emotions come in the way.
The research found that people who continuously kick decision-making down the road experience more regrets from having made no decision at all.
The ultimate methods:
