I guess we all feel either worn out, confused, stressed and very frustrated. More than a year and a half ago first rumours about a new and dangerous virus emerged and soon it started its journey around the world. Covid-19 or SARS-Cov-2.
In November 2019 an ophthalmologist in Wuhan, China discovered an unusual number of his patient having flu-like symptoms with severe respiratory symptoms, he did report his observation to the authorities in Wuhan, he was silenced. Doktor Li Wenliang later contracted the virus himself and died.
On the 31st of December, the Chinese Government reported ” pneumonia cases with unknown aetiology” to the WHO. By January 1st 2020 Chinese authorities had identified 244 cases of COVID-19. On January 30th 2020 the WHO officially declares a ” public health emergency” on March 11th 2020, a pandemic was declared, by that time the number of cases across the world had reached 500.000.
We take a brief journey through history to see how people reacted then and what the economic consequences were. Sadly I have to state history repeats itself and if we would not be better of by taking the occasional journey back into the past to avoid repeating mistakes.
Athenian Plage 430-429 BCE
In the realm of infectious diseases, a pandemic is a worst-case scenario. When an epidemic spreads beyond a country’s borders, that’s when the disease officially becomes a pandemic.
The earliest recorded pandemic happened during the Peloponnesian War. After the disease had passed through Libya, Ethiopia and Egypt, it crossed the Athenian walls as the Spartans laid siege. The plague was accurately documented by Thucydides (he survived the plague) a historian and general in the state of Athens. His very detailed and analytical record filled with empirical analysis is perfect documentation on how fast a contagious illness can spread, the sorrow it brought to many and the socio-economic and political consequences it had.
The symptoms included fever, thirst, bloody throat and tongue, red skin and lesions. The disease, suspected to have been typhoid fever, as much as two-thirds of Athen´s population died.
The Impact
- Thucides left a compelling analysis on how the pandemic affected the political order, the economic system and society
- Fear, manipulation, conspiracy theories, ambitious politicians and unscrupulous businessmen did destroy a state – the sophisticated Athenian democracy collapsed
- The war with Sparta was lost as a consequence, the state system collapsed. Athens ended up being ruled by self-serving thugs, suffered an oligarchic coup, was faced with “unprecedented lawlessness”, death, hunger and social unrest.
The Antonine Plague 165-180 CE
The Antonine plague was most likely an early appearance of smallpox or measle type disease that most likely had its origins in Mesopotamia. Returning Roman troops spread it throughout the Roman empire, which at that time covered a large part of Europe, parts of Northern Africa and the Near East. Symptoms included fever, sore throat, diarrhoea and if the patient lived long enough, pus-filled sores. This plague continued for 24 years the death toll is estimated at 10 Mio. people across the Roman empire. Reputedly also claiming Emperor Marcus Aurelius.
The Impact
- The impact of the plague was severe, from military conscription, the agricultural to the urban economy, depleted state coffers resulting in a weak and corrupt political system.
- The plague also affected ancient Roman traditions, a renewal of spirituality and religiousness was recorded. This created the conditions for the spread of monotheistic religions, such as Mithraism and Christianity.
- This leads to a major political crisis in the 3rd century, and it can rightfully be assumed that the plague created the conditions for the decline of the Roman Empire and, afterwards, for its fall in the West in the fifth century AD.
The Black Death or Pestilence 1346-1353
1347 CE a ship arrived in Messina (Sicily) carrying Genoese merchants coming from the Crimean port of Kaffa apart from their merchandise they carried a disease responsible for the death of 200 Mio. people, two-thirds of the world’s population. Virulence was higher during the early stages of the outbreak before immunity began to evolve in the population (or the disease itself mutated). Italy was one of the hardest-hit regions of Europe as it was the
first infected (mortality of around 50%). Dead bodies became so prevalent that many remained rotting on the ground and created a constant stench in cities. The abundance of rats and fleas, caused by the poor standards of hygiene of that time where cause of the rapid spread of the disease. Venice was
The Impact
- The social disorder was on the rise, resistance to tax payment, peasant revolts, skirmishes by commoners with political and economic objective was gaining traction in the decades following the pandemic.
- The masses grew more affluent. A severely reduced labour force resulted in rising wages. The concentration of wealth however became limited as the value of land or capital had. The adherence to a strict class system became blurred. Sumptuary Laws – laws restricting certain dresses to a specific class of society, proliferated. Growing mass affluence lead to eroding status barriers. the same or was diminished.
- The inability to recruit new soldiers brought the 100-year war between England and France to an end.
- For the first time in history quarantine measures was put into place to curb the spread of disease.
The Cholera Pandemic 1817-1860
In 1817 the first, of many Cholera pandemics, the first signs of the outbreak was recorded in Bengal. It is assumed Cholera was spread by English soldiers returning home and via trade routes through Russia to the rest of Europe, the British Navy spread it to Spain, Africa, Indonesia, China, Japan, and the US. First outbreaks however were recorded as early as 1543 by a Portuguese historian, also in the Ganges Delta. First, it was assumed the disease would spread through miasma (Air) however the British physician Snow discovered the spread through contaminated water. Cholera is an intestinal infection caused by faeces- infected water and food if not treated kills within 48 hours.
Today Cholera is still around but treatable the vaccinations available offer a 65% immunity. In 2017 cholera broke out in Somalia and Yemen and affected 500.000 people,.
The Impact
- The cholera pandemic’s origin in India, and was widely known as “Asian Cholera” or “Indian disease”, resulted in a rise of anti-Asian sentiment, especially towards Indian people and the Asian culture. The
- The public became gripped with widespread distrust of authority figures, most of all doctors. Unbalanced press reporting led people to think that more victims died in the hospital than their homes, and the public began to believe that victims taken to hospitals were killed by doctors for anatomical dissection.
- The British physician John Snow, the founder of modern epidemiology, identified the source of the disease: contaminated water, poor living conditions, and increased migration.
- With this knowledge water supplies were improved(addition of chlorine), sewage systems well away from clean water supply were build and sanitation widely introduced. The dire housing conditions of the poor did improve as a direct result to prevent the spread of the disease
- 1883 the German microbiologist Robert Koch was able to grow and describe V.cholerae – as a result, in 1885 a vaccine could be developed
- Cholera is still around but treatable, vaccinations available offer a 65% immunity. the pandemic continued to flare up and trouble the planet for 150 years.
The Spanish Flu 1918- 1920
The “Spanish Flu” had three waves between 1918 to 1920. Around 500 Mio. people got infected and an estimated 50 million lost their lives, a far higher than the WW1´s death toll of 17 Million. The estimated total world population was around 1.8 billion. The death rate amongst 14-40-year-old men was the highest, the reason: most men of that age were or had been soldiers and had been suffering from exhaustion and malnutrition.
Amidst the first wave, most countries were at war (WW1). For strategic reasons, European countries and America were hiding the severity through censorship, in order to not expose any weakness to the enemy and keep up appearances of still having healthy troops. Spain, a neutral country in the war and had no censorship, after the Spanish King´s had been infected with the flu, which was announced to the public and widely reported in the press, the flue had its name.
Not to cause a stir and to hide the truth countries introduced strict quarantine measures far too late. Scientists and historians assume the flu had its origins in the USA, based on two facts, the first reported outbreak was at a military camp in Kansas further, seven out of eight genes are similar to a bird flu virus originating in North America, the war was cause for high mobility so most likely American soldiers took the virus across the world, thousands of American soldiers died on board of ships bringing them to fight in Europe and other parts of the world.
The Impact
- The Spanish flu left a staggering trail of consequences on politics and social structures around the world. There is a great silence in connection with the Spanish flu which killed far more people than world WW 1. We remember and assign changes to the war but not the pandemic, this includes writers and painters who went airily silent in the aftermath of the pandemic.
- It killed the South African prime minister and the prince of Sweden. It sickened the Spanish king, the German Kaiser, the American president Woodrow Wilson and David Lloyd George and it crippled First World War armies.
- The flu´s impact could not only be felt on the battlefields but left a significant mark on the outcome of the peace conference that followed. Woodrow Wilson contracted flu en route to the Paris peace conference in 1919, and like many other cases, he suffered cognitive harm as a result of contracting the virus. Woodrow Wilson abandoned his strong opposition to economically weaken Germany, despite being advised otherwise. Back at the negotiation table, he totally flipped his opinion and voted with France and Belgium. The total in reparation due was 67.7 Billion Mark in Gold, the 21 Billion to be paid in cash was the equivalent of 1.4 Trillion Euro or 7.000 tons of gold. An economically severely weakened Germany was, offered a solid foundation for Adolf Hitler´s rise to power.
- After the Russian Revolution and civil war, Lenin brought in the first modern public healthcare system (at least for urban Russians). He asked doctors to make epidemic and famine prevention their top priority because flu and famine had nearly wiped out the Russian working classes.
“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
George Santayana, Spanish Philosopher
Speed Read
A pandemic brings to surface any flaws that have been festering for a long time
Governments and politicians are measured on their ability to lead
Structures in societies come under scrutiny and are reevaluated
Economic structures and their players are questioned and their purpose to exist is challenged
Inequalities, dodgy leaders, the integrity of business leaders and business models are scrutinized
Fear and lack of knowledge feed conciparcy theories
Mankind is designed to seek explanations when their live is disrupted and some opne to blame it on so racism and xenophobia is a side effect when a pandemic strikes
The Asian Influenzas
The cause of the ” Asian Flu” 1957-1958, was a virus called A/Signapore/1/57 also known as H2N2, 2 Million people lost their lives. The world´s population was at 2.9 Billion. This new virus was a merger of a human influenza subtype and a bird flu virus, the origin was traced back to China. The highest mortality was in South America and young people were disproportionally targeted.
Ten years later 1967 -1968 the “Hongkong flu” sweeps across the world and kills 1 Mio people worldwide, the country that was hit worst was Germany (west) – for too long Germany had tried to play down the severity of the flu. It is assumed the flu had been circulating in China prior to hitting Hongkong, from where it spread across the world. This new virus A/H3N2 was a result of a ” reassortment” or ” antigen shift ” of the 1957 A/H2H3 virus – the annual flue which troubles us still today is a relative of the previous mentioned.
The Impact
- The microbiologist Maurice Hilleman obtained samples of the virus from a US Navy Doctor in Japan, these were released to a vaccine manufacturer in Mai 57, in July the first trials were conducted at Fort Ort and Lower Air Force base in May 1957, in August the first vaccines were available in the US in October the vaccine was available in England.
- The Dow Jones lost 15% and the US suffered a recession
- The economies in Europe and Asia shrunk by 9,9% and then went into recession.
SARS-CoV
2002 – 2003, the 1st pandemic of the 21st century raised its ugly head. A completely new virus, SARS-CoV, a coronavirus with origins in animals (zoonotic), caused a highly infectious respiratory disease. It was first detected in the South Chinese province of Guangdong. Within weeks the disease had spread across the world, the virus was active in 26 countries, within six months 774 people had died. This time it was a part of China, Canada which was hit worst. The virus was regarded as highly infectious, within 24 hours only one person from the Guangdong region had passed on the virus to 12 international guests in a Hotel in Bejing. 2009- 2010 the A7California/72009 also known H1N1 virus, better known as swine- flu with origins in the USA was declared a pandemic in April 2009, despite having a low infection rate. H1N1 was a subtype of the “Spanish flu” of 1918 which had left 50 million people dead. Drastic precautionary measures were put in place for fear of similar numbers of casualties. By August 2010 the WHO lifted the pandemic status. A 2012 study by The Lancet estimated 151.700- 575.400 people had died from the swine- flu.
The Impact
- The pressure was put on national and international healthcare systems to better prepare for future outbreaks of severely contagious diseases.
- Chinas organizational obstacles, the flow of information and lack of coordination are considered the cause for the spread of the virus – China supposedly overhauled the case reporting structure.
- Strong international cooperation and coordinated quarantine measures contained the virus in a very short time.
- The short-term economic loss of SARS-CoV was estimated at §80 Billion.
- The need to increase public spending on health care and health infrastructure was established as one of the most important lessons to be learned.
Introducing SARS-COV-2 alias COVID19
Now here we are again another virus, known as COVID-19, the world´s population is around 7.8 Billion, never before did we have such high mobility, and never before have economies been so globally intertwined. The virus SARS-Co-V-2, a newly mutated Coronavirus subtype, is equally mobile and seems happy to mutate.
The Impact – Spring 2021
- The death toll is +/- 3.4 Million
- Economic stagnation due to shutdowns
- Stockmarket crash in March 2020 – indices dropped between 20 and 30%
- Economic contractions ranging 7% in advanced economies to 2,5% in Emerging markets- the global economy contracted by 5,2% in 2020
- Latin America is worst hit with a double-digit downturn
- Unemployment rates have risen sharply
- Per capita income shank by 3,2%
- Cooperate debt bubble becomes a real threat- some speak of a debt bomb
- Governments print and pump unheard of amounts of money into the economic system
- Social disparities, inequalities, and discriminations are increasing globally
- Political populism is on the rise
- Conspiracy theories and misinformation spread rapidly due to social media
- Globalisation is questioned
